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i've always considered bainbridge island an amalgam of camelot (where there is simply not a more congenial spot for happy-ever-aftering) and lake wobegon (where all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average). i mean that observation in a positive supportive way. lately i've been wondering if our local government doesn't manifest the dark side of the lake wobegon effect, otherwise known as illusory superiority, the better-than-average effect, or my personal favorite, the primus inter pares (first among equals) effect.

according to wikipedia, illusory superiority is a cognitive bias in which people overestimate the degree to which they possess desirable qualities, relative to others, or underestimate their negative qualities relative to others. it is one of a class of positive illusions. whereas in optimism bias people overestimate the likelihood of favorable events happening to them, in illusory superiority people have inflated views of their own characteristics.

the effect has been found when people compare themselves to others on many different abilities and personality traits. some surveys have found all, or nearly all, the participants rating themselves as above the group average. this has been termed the lake wobegon effect after garrison keillor's fictional town where "all the children are above average". the strongest effect has been found when people rate themselves on abilities at which they are totally incompetent. these subjects have the greatest disparity between their actual performance (at the low end of the distribution) and their self-rating (placing themselves above average). this effect is interpreted as a lack of metacognitive ability to recognize their own incompetence.

the term "illusory superiority" was first used by van yperen and bunk in 1991. other terms used for the same phenomenon include "superiority bias", "the above-average effect", "leniency error", "sense of relative superiority", and the "primus inter pares (first among equals) effect". and for all you women out there, at least one study indicates that in the case of intelligence quotients (iq) men are prone to overestimate their intelligence by around five points while women are likely to underestimate their iq by a similar proportion.

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bainbridge island ferry tales
by keith hauschulz